Full Accession of Somalia into the EAC Was a Mistake

Recent developments in Somalia paint a grim picture of the security situation in the country. Al-Shabaab militants have intensified attacks against the Federal Government of Somalia, steadily reclaiming territory from the national armed forces. The situation has deteriorated to the point that Al-Shabaab spokesperson Ali Dheere brazenly held a press conference to mock and discredit government forces.

This escalation presents new challenges for the East African region, as Al-Shabaab’s ambitions do not stop at Somalia’s borders. The group has long expressed intent to expand its influence into Kenya, Ethiopia, and beyond, posing a direct threat to regional stability.

Was Somalia Ready for the EAC?

Somalia officially joined the East African Community (EAC) after its admission by regional heads of state, in line with the relatively shallow criteria outlined in the EAC Treaty. In early 2024, Somalia deposited its instrument of ratification, becoming a full member of the bloc. This membership grants Somalia various privileges, including free movement of people, tariff-free trade, free movement of capital, enhanced security cooperation, and access to East African Development Bank (EADB) funding.

However, a fundamental question remains: Was Somalia truly prepared for EAC membership?

One of the key requirements for joining the EAC is having a functional market economy. Somalia does not meet this standard by global or even regional measures. Its economy is largely driven by livestock trading, with minimal regulation, stability, or formal economic structures. The country suffers from a severe lack of infrastructure, including roads, communication networks, and financial institutions, which are essential for economic integration within the EAC.

Additionally, Somalia’s federal government currently controls less than half of the country, raising serious concerns about its stability. With Al-Shabaab actively challenging the government and making territorial gains, the possibility of an insurgent takeover remains a real threat. This instability undermines the core principles of regional cooperation and economic integration.

A Rushed and Flawed Accession Process

The EAC Treaty outlines basic criteria for new members, requiring them to:

• Be geographically within Eastern Africa
• Have a functional market economy
• Share common interests with existing members
• Promote regional peace and stability
• Undergo an assessment process before admission

Somalia, in its current state, does not fully meet these criteria. Its accession appears to have been rushed without a thorough evaluation of its readiness. The motivations behind this hasty decision remain unclear, but it is evident that the EAC's existing framework for assessing new members is inadequate.

The Need for Stronger Admission Criteria

The EAC should reconsider its membership requirements and draw inspiration from the European Union’s Copenhagen Criteria, which set clear and stringent conditions for accession. The Copenhagen Criteria require potential EU members to have:

• Stable institutions guaranteeing democracy, human rights, and the rule of law
• A functioning market economy capable of handling the pressures of integration
• The ability to adopt and implement the obligations of membership

Applying similar rigorous standards to EAC accession would prevent politically motivated or premature admissions that could weaken the bloc’s stability and effectiveness.

Conclusion

Somalia’s admission to the EAC was premature and has introduced new risks to the region. The ongoing security crisis and lack of economic stability raise serious concerns about the wisdom of this decision. To safeguard the integrity of the EAC, the bloc must urgently update its treaty, introduce stricter assessment procedures, and ensure that future members are genuinely prepared for integration. Existing members must also face a form of suspension when they fail to meet the set threshold. Without these reforms, the EAC risks becoming a fragile and ineffective organization, burdened by the instability of its newest member.